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	<title>loadedgunchasing.com Blog</title>
	<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1</link>
	<description>Mikey Gribble&#039;s blog and forecast page for www.loadedgunchasing.com</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 17 Dec 2011 05:03:23 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>12/20 Snow Storm</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Well it looks like we might get our first real snow of the season this coming week near Wichita. I haven&#8217;t forecasted much but I&#8217;m going too take a close look tomorrow. Somebody in the central plains should get a heavy swath of snow, just a matter of where. I will update tomorrow after I [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/12/16/1220-snow-storm/</link>
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		<title>Today</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I still like my target right along the border in SW Oklahoma. I&#8217;d be setting up shop at Hollis Oklahoma or just north of that at the highway intersection I mentioned earlier. The shear profiles look good, they are getting good insolation so instability will probably be higher than forecast. The big concern I have [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/11/07/today-52/</link>
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		<title>Today</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Well unfortunately I&#8217;m not going chasing today. I really want to, but I got a lot going at work and one of my supervisors will be gone today to close on his house. I think it looks good for tornadoes as long as they get good insolation today, and it looks like they might. I [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/11/07/today-51/</link>
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		<title>11/07/11 Forecast</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Well it looks like it might be game on for tomorrow. I&#8217;ve been out of storm chasing mode so I haven&#8217;t done much forecasting for this setup. I really just started taking a close look at it today. That being said I&#8217;m not going to post a long forecast now. I&#8217;ll just give it a [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/11/06/110711-forecast/</link>
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		<title>Now</title>
		<description><![CDATA[God damn bridge across the missouri river is out. I&#8217;m pretty sure somebody warned me about that. I would be on a tornadic storm in 15 minutes if it wasn&#8217;t but it is and I&#8217;m fucked.]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/26/now-4/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Still sitting in Sabetha, KS. There are some good towers to my northeast. They look pretty significant so I&#8217;m hoping the cap will break. Think storms could fire anywhere near border area. I&#8217;m going to sit tight for now. If a persistent surface based storms develops conditions look favorable for tornadic supercells.]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/26/update-315/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Sitting in Sabetha Kansas. I&#8217;m getting ready to do some forecasting, but I&#8217;m pretty content with my current position. It&#8217;s just a matter of if and where exactly storms fire. Conditions seem to already be favorable for tornadic supercells. Just need a storm. I&#8217;ll update as soon as I get done going over the forecast.]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/26/update-314/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Preliminary target is Hiawatha Kansas. I think the corridor from there to Auburn Nebraska may be a good starting point. I haven&#8217;t spent much time on it though and this is a tricky one for pinning down where exactly storms will develop. I hate this late season stuff where you can&#8217;t expect storms to develop [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/26/update-313/</link>
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		<title>Today</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Honestly I&#8217;m not surprised to see SPC upgrade the tornado probs for southeast Nebraska into northeast KS and NW MO. The combination of decent thermodynamics, good backing 850&#8242;s and good 500mb winds overlapping in that area could prove to be a solid setup for late season tornadoes. I am concerned about convective evolution and I [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/26/today-50/</link>
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		<title>Extended Forecast</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I just did a quick glance over the models so put much stock in this. It looks like for the most part tornado season may be over for the central plains. This is right about the time of year you expect that to happen and the GFS and ECMWF both show us moving into more [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/23/extended-forecast-48/</link>
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		<title>Extended Forecast</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Not a whole lot to look forward to over the next 7 days. Tonight is the first time I looked at the models for the extended forecast so I&#8217;ll wait until I see tomorrow&#8217;s runs before getting into any sort of details, but it looks like a whole lot of nothing until the second half [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/21/extended-forecast-47/</link>
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		<title>Today</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I haven&#8217;t had much time for forecasting. I forgot I was supposed to post one this morning. I think SPC has a pretty good handle on it. I could see a tornado or two occuring anywhere, but typically the areas I favor with these types of strong forcing arcing band of convection days is the [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/20/today-49/</link>
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		<title>Tomorrow</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Tough forecast for tomorrow. With strong forcing convection could tend to get filled in quickly along portions of the cold front/dryline. Convective evolution will play a role in the tornado potential and that is always tough to forecast. I could see any place producing tomorrow. The main targets are the area north of the surface [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/19/tomorrow-18/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I might have screwed up. We were in Salina this afternoon waiting to see how things unfolded. After I saw the Topeka 4pm sounding I called it a day. I thought it was just too strong for persistent day time storms. Well storms fired right as we got back to Wichita just southeast of Salina, [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/19/update-312/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m leaving town now heading up to Salina. I&#8217;m going to stop there, go over data and pin down my starting target. I&#8217;ll upate when I get there.]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/19/update-311/</link>
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		<title>Forecast</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I have just started working on my forecasting but I wanted to get a rough map up, so here it is. I haven&#8217;t looked much at where I expect the cap to erode and storms to fire, but the area on the map above is the most favorable environment for tornadoes today. That doesn&#8217;t mean [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/19/forecast-53/</link>
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		<title>Tomorrow</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I just started to look at the NAM and it shifted everything southeast with tomorrow&#8217;s setup. If that is accurate and not a fluke then the threat area will shift southeast too so my old map would be off. I will get a new map posted in the morning.]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/18/tomorrow-17/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I just got back from chasing tonight. I was on the tornado warned storm that tracked right along the OK/KS border. It never produced a tornado when I was on it, but it had a couple rotating wall clouds. There was one time when I thought it might put down a weak tornado. Didn&#8217;t happen [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/18/update-310/</link>
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		<title>Forecast</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I just got done going over today&#8217;s forecast and it isn&#8217;t looking good. There are some significant differences between the NAM and GFS with the strength of wind fields at 850 and 700mb, but both models show weak flow at 500mb. that combined with weak flow in the inflow layers and strong DCAPE should keep [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/18/forecast-52/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[There are several days that show some potential between now and Monday, but nothing looks terribly impressive. I haven&#8217;t looked real close at anything yet, but I&#8217;ll go over it in the morning and post a forecast then.]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/17/update-309/</link>
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		<title>Extended Forecast</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Monday is looking like the best tornado day with this next trough. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this being a seasonably strong trough with a favorable tilt, so my confidence is increasing that at least the shear profiles will be decent with this setup. If we don&#8217;t have issues with the cap or high [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/16/extended-forecast-46/</link>
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		<title>Extended Forecast</title>
		<description><![CDATA[It is still a long ways out, but the models have been consistent in showing a more substantial trough moving through the plains around Sunday/Monday of next week. I haven&#8217;t looked at it closely yet, but the trough is seasonably strong and it has a good tilt to it with the current model runs for [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/14/extended-forecast-45/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Just got home from work. Still a lot of uncertainty on where exactly storms will fire and how convection will evolve. I still like the NW quadrant of Missouri and still like the Chillicothe or Columbia target. Those would both be good places to wait at and see how things evolve. I&#8217;m not really sure [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/14/update-308/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Very tough forecast today. It is difficult to pin down the exact location of the boundaries and any tornado threat this afternoon will be largely influenced by convective evolution, which is inherently tough to anticipate with warm fronts (plus today&#8217;s sloppy surface pattern is making it even worse). I haven&#8217;t looked at much so take [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/14/update-307/</link>
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		<title>Tomorrow</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I haven&#8217;t looked closely at it yet, but after glancing it over tomorrow does have potential. The greatest threat for tornadoes will likely be near and east of the surface low along the warm front. The cap is a question mark that still needs answering. Tonight&#8217;s NAM has convection breaking out near the surface low, [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/13/tomorrow-16/</link>
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		<title>Today</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I was going to chase today and I&#8217;d still like to, but I just can&#8217;t bring myself to make a 3-4 hour drive with gas prices as high as they are. It is basically $150 chase at least with my car. I&#8217;d rather wait for something a little better. Today does look decent for a [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/13/today-48/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m just now sitting down to forecast. I should get something posted by 12:30]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/13/update-306/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I just started looking a little closer at tomorrow&#8217;s setup and I&#8217;m starting to think there might be some good potential there. It is very conditional because of capping issues and convective evolution, but there is decent potential. I&#8217;m really curious how SPC will handle it. Things should be a lot more clear by morning, [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/12/update-305/</link>
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		<title>Tomorrow</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I just got done looking over the 00Z NAM. A triple point will set up over Kansas tomorrow with a warm front running east from there. Since I&#8217;ve only seen a couple model runs I&#8217;m not going to get into the exact locations of the boundaries yet, but the triple point should be in the [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/12/tomorrow-15/</link>
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		<title>Update</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Sorry about not posting on today&#8217;s setup, but it didn&#8217;t really matter since the cap held. I was going strong after I got back in town tonight, but after I unpacked, showered and ate I hit a brick wall. Took a nap on the couch four about four hours lol. I setup the alarm on [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/2011/06/12/update-304/</link>
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