loadedgunchasing.com Blog

Just got back in town from the float trip in Oklahoma this weekend. It was a good time. Something isn’t quite right with the gene pool in Oklahoma which adds to the entertainment lol.
I was watching the storm fire just northwest of Wichita on Thursday when I was getting ready to leave town. LCL heights were really high and I knew storms would tend to be outflow dominant, but you always have to be careful in those first couple hours after a storm fires before the outflow really takes over. I had to leave to meet friends south of Wichita on the turnpike at 6 so the timing was really bad for me. I headed south and right as I got to the place where I was supposed to meet everybody the storm went tornado warned. Sooo, I hung a U turn and hauled ass back towards Wichita. That was the first real test for the Penetrator (or Peanut Traitor, whichever you prefer) and it handled nice. I got to the updraft base by Maize. It already had a wet RFD and the base wasn’t very impressive, but there was a wall cloud that was fairly close to the ground with decent vertical motion. I tracked the storm across Wichita as it trended more towards an outflow dominant mode. I thought it might spin up a very weak tornado near I35, but I didn’t see anything. Any tornado would have just been a little spin up along the lead edge of the outflow, but in a populated area that can do some damage.
As that storm became outflow dominant I bailed and dropped south to catch the storm that went tornado warned off its south flank. I intercepted a wall cloud north of Cessna. It quickly became rain wrapped as the outflow began to dominate again on that cell. After that I looped south to get around any hail and made my way back home. It would have been 9pm when I would have left town so I stayed in Wichita Thursday night and then drove to Oklahoma Friday morning.

It looks like we have a conditional threat for supercells and possibly a couple tornadoes this afternoon. I haven’t looked at the setup at all. Just read SPC. I have to wash the filth from the Illinois River off of me and then I’ll get on my forecasting. I will be ready to chase this afternoon since its close to home, but it sounds like there may be some issues with the cap. I will update as soon as I get into my forecasting.

I wish I would have been paying closer attention to the weather. I could be out chasing right now if I had. I could still get out there early enough to catch any tornadoes in the area I’d target, but we are going on a float trip in Oklahoma. We are meeting up at 7pm tonight to leave town. I’d have to drive down in the morning if I went chasing tonight, so I’m going to pass on this one. I only glanced at the setup but I’d be straight north of Topeka a little ways right now. Good luck if you are heading out today. I’ll update tomorrow afternoon when I have more time to forecast.

Sorry I have no Internet or cable at home so no forecasting. They better get it fixed soon or I’m going to be more than a little pissed off. All I have is my iPhone. If I were out I’d be near Bagley Minnesota right now. Assuming they fix the Internet I’ll update later.

I haven’t gone over the forecast for today yet. Been busy at work and having a tough time getting my dicking off quota in today. I should get some time at lunch to go over it though. I wouldn’t put any stock in what I say on this anyway. I really haven’t been following this setup and my forecasts are bad enough when I do actually pay attention lol.
I’d probably still be sitting tight north of the warm front in central or western Minnesota. Probably close to the target I posted last night as my starting point for today.
There may be some potential for Thursday or Friday as a shortwave finally manages to dig a little farther south into the central/northern plains and then into the midwest. I will take a look at it and update later today on that. Nothing impressive, but since its the first trough that’s made it this far south in a couple weeks its worth watching.

I only glanced at tomorrow. Really tricky forecast. I really don’t know how storms will evolve along the warm front. If they are surface based shear profiles are pretty good near the warm front. I will take a closer look and update later tonight or early in the morning. If I was chasing I’d probably stay the night in Detroit Lakes Minnesota tonight. That would be a good starting point tomorrow morning.
Beyond that the GFS and ECMWF show the blocking ridge beginning to break down later in the week as a couple small disturbances cut through the plains. Too early to pin anything down yet and the models don’t show any major west coast troughs but hopefully the change back to a more active pattern in the plains will start later this week.
I will update later tonight or in the morning.

I am just now starting to look at the setup for tomorrow, but there are a few problems. Long story short I think any decent tornado threat will be confined to the vicinity of the frontal boundary. That is the only are where shear profiles may be good for tornadic supercells. I will continue going over model data through the day and update later. I’ll take a look ahead at the extended forecast too. There are signs the blocking ridge may start to break down, but when a substantial trough will come through and dig into the plains is very uncertain.

Well there is a whole lot of nothing to look forward to. Both the ECMWF and GFS show the blocking ridge holding strong over the next 7 days. There may be some action in the high plains as troughs ride over the top of the ridge, but nothing major. I don’t think you can really trust the GFS as far as timing goes with the ridge breaking down, but I’d bet it happens around mid month. It seems like these patterns this time of year usually hold together for about two weeks. That doesn’t mean that’s what will happen this time, but it’s my best guess. Somewhere around the 15th is when I think we’ll get back out there chasing, so a nice little break is just starting. It sucks on one hand but on another I’m glad to get the time off from forecasting. The amount of time I put into forecasting slowly dwindles through the season as I get burned out on it, so having a little time off right now will give me a boost to finish the season strong.
Anyway, I wouldn’t think season is over or anything like that. It’s too early for that. This pattern should break down and hopefully we have an active second half of June. I’ll probably update again tomorrow.

I’d probably be sitting between McCook NE and Oberlin KS right now. Little unsure on exactly how convection will evolve at this point but that is a nice centrally located position. As visible satellite lights up in coming hours things should be a little easier to pin down

I’m at work so I can’t draw a map right now. I will try to get one up later, but as things stand now I’d put myself right on the KS/NE border in northwest Kansas. I think that is a good spot this afternoon. The HRRR hasn’t been updating and the 12Z run doesn’t show precip there, but the RUC shows a discrete cell there, which makes sense. I will continue to go over things as I get time and update as I can. I am kind of wishing I was out there today. It could end up being a really enjoyable chase with a couple lower end tornadoes.

Got side tracked this morning. I’m not chasing but I’ll post a forecast shortly. Looks like an easy day to pick a target.

I’ve only briefly glanced the NAM over. I don’t have any more time to forecast though. I need to watch the new Tosh.0 and then hit the sack. I have to go into work at 5am tomorrow. I will have time to forecast right when I get there so I’ll post a forecast then.
Still not sure if I’ll chase. LCL heights are high. That and how convection unfolds during the day is the chief concerns with tomorrow. If the small disturbance is as strong as forecast deep layer shear should be strong enough for supercells. CAPE should be sufficient anywhere over the warm sector where earlier convection hasn’t inhibited it. Since daytime convection may play an important role in tomorrow’s setup I need to see the simulated radar/precip models before trying to make a forecast. Plus I really haven’t spent any time looking at the models yet so I need to go over that too. I’ll probably get a forecast posted around 6 or 7am and I’ll decide if I’m chasing then. We are going to get a blocking ridge and a break from chasing so I may want to get out there tomorrow. At the same time another trip to western Kansas for a whole lot of nothing doens’t sound real appealing so we’ll see.

I’m not planning on chasing tomorrow but I’ll get a forecast posted for it later today

I just glanced ahead and a trough will come through some time the end of this work week. The models show a blocking ridge in place over the plains though and the trough is forecast to ride over the top of it. Beyond that there is nothing to get excited about. Aside from some potential action in the high plains later this week I don’t see anything to look forward to. I think we are in for a little break. I wouldn’t think this blocking ridge pattern would last more than a couple weeks. It is too early in the season for something like that to hold together for too long. So the first part of June is looking slow.
I will take a look at the models tomorrow and update then.

Well that didn’t exactly play out as planned. I’m just glad I was confident enough the cap wasn’t going to break by 5pm to call it so I got home at a decent time. I watched the storms that fired off the boundary intersection on the way home. The first storm to come off looked alright and probably is responsible for a lot of the tornado reports if I had to guess. Everything behind that looked like ass after the first couple hous. Unless there was a good tornado can’t say I’m sorry I missed that. A drive home from north central Nebraska right now would suck pretty bad.

One thing worth mentioning is that the GFS and NAM did a fairly decent job showing only convection firing along the boundary intersection/cold front portion of the risk area today, putting a tail end of that near the KS border. The HRRR was spitting out run after run with dryline storms developing in Kansas this afternoon, which was obviously wrong. That is not what you’d expect. The NAM and GFS have sucked with forecasting precip all season and the HRRR has been pretty solid. The exact oppostie happened tonight.

I haven’t looked at the GFS yet, but I’ll take a look later tonight. Unless something changed, it looked like we were starting into a slow period. I will take a look at it and update later tonight or in the morning.

I bailed about 30 minutes ago. I had some stuff come up at home plus I think the cap may be the big winner down south today. Storms up north in NE are evolving about as expected becoming clustered/linear quickly. I expect tornadoes but unfavorable storm modes will mitigate the tornado threat.

I should rephrase that. I think some storms will fire south, but I’m seriously worried the uncapped warm sector may not be very wide. Models show CIN creeping up fairly close to the dryline. Storms will need to get off the dryline and into the warm sector a ways where temp/dewpoint spreads lower. They may encounter a stronger cap as they do that and struggle. If we can get persistent storms that move out into the warm sector a ways we could be in okay shape for a couple tornadoes.

This has cap bust written all over it in the ks/NE border area

I’m really worried about the cap farther south. Recent runs of HRRR show storms struggling to develop near ks/NE border area.

Heading out shortly. Above is my target and the area I think that has the best chance for a discrete tornadic supercell to develop this afternoon. Good luck if you are chasing. I am driving today so the only updates I’ll post will be from my cell phone until I get to my target. They will be very short and to the point. Good luck if you are heading out. Despite the mediocre thermodynamics and modest directional shear there is still a chance for a strong tornado given strong wind fields in the lower levels. The lack of directional shear (meridional flow) and weak upper level winds are the main limiting factors today though.

I slept late so just now getting up. I glanced at precip with the NAM and the HRRR already and both put a tail end to convection in the KS/NE border area, which is ideal for me. I will likely be targetting just downstream from there (in far southern Nebraska just north of border). I am working on the forecasting now and will try to get something posted before leaving town.

I just read SPC’s update and pretty much agree with their take on things. The tornado threat along the northern portion of the dryline where cold front overtakes it will likely be impacted by how quickly storms become linear. If the 4km WRF is to be believed that transition may happen fairly quickly. If that is in fact the case, the situation would play out where you get higher concentrations of tornado reports near the northern target/warm front and farther south in central and southern Nebraska, with a gap in between where only a few tornadoes occur early in storm evolution before going linear/becoming clustered.
If I could chase anywhere tomorrow I’d go with southeast North Dakota as a target. No way I’m driving that far for this setup though. It is going to take a blatant tornado outbreak to get me to North Dakota. I am going with south central Nebraska as an initial target. I will assess things from there. Hopefully there are a few discrete cells or tail end of clustered storms in that area.
I will update in the morning.

Above is my best guess at the two areas with enhanced tornado potential. Models really aren’t too far off on the surface pattern after taking a closer look. The extent of the cap and convective evolution is going to have a big impact on the tornado threat tomorrow, so I still have a low degree of confidence in the forecast.

Best guess at this point is that tomorrow will be in the range of a 15-30 tornado report day, with potentially higher concentrations of tornado reports near the triple point and over northern KS southern NE. That is a huge guess at this point though with some of the uncertainties that are still out there. I’d also say there will be a chance for a strong tornado or two tomorrow. As I said in my last post this is a very finicky setup though. I have a lot of forecasting I still need to do and there are some model products I really want to see.
Storm motions will be fast too. Depending on which are you are playing tomorrow the distance from the initiating boundary you target should be different. I’ll go over that in the morning though.
I’ll update again later tonight or in the morning. Just wanted to throw out some idea of the extent of any tornado threat tomorrow since I left it out of my last post.

After several model runs with the cap breaking all the way down into Kansas the models have doubled back and are now only showing precip as far south as central Nebraska. I could have done without that curve ball. I trust the NAM and GFS about as far as I can throw them (hear they are quite large) though so I don’t know how much you can believe that.
There is also a wide spread with the location of the surface low/triple point tomorrow afternoon between the NAM and GFS, with the GFS being farther north.

I fully intended to write a forecast and draw a map, but without knowing where the triple point will setup or how far south the cap will break, there isn’t much reason to try and make a map or do an extensive forecast. The story is about the same. There will be decent thermodynamics and strong speed shear tomorrow, creating an environment favorable for supercells all along the dryline and up to the warm front.

Northern portion of the dryline – Directional shear is not very good here. The shear profiles along the northern portion of the dryline shows only modest turning in the surface to 500mb layer (largely unidirectional). With a strong meridional component to the mid and upper level flow and a north to south initiating boundary (dryline), storms will tend to track close to the boundary and may become clustered/linear rather quickly. Just how fast they beomce clustered/linear will have an impact on the tornado threat. Hodographs are somewhat favorable for a tornado threat, despite the poor directional component to the shear profile. The tornado threat will be greatest with any storm that has undisturbed inflow (semi discrete).

Moisture wrap around and triple point – There will likely be better directional shear in this area and storms will tend to fire here earlier, possibly creating a bigger window for tornado potential. You never know how exactly storms will come off the bulge and triple point area, but if there is strong linear forcing some times getting northeast of the triple point is a good play. Until I see some of the precip/radar models in the morning its hard to guess how convection will evolve, but if I expected storms to be clustered or linear rather quickly along the northern portion of the dryline I’d consider going with the triple point/moisture wrap around area.

BTW I didn’t look at the northern area very much, so take what I said with a grain of salt.
The area I’m focusing on is the southern portion of the dryline. I don’t know exactly what portion of the dryline will constitue “southern” because I don’t know how far south storms will fire yet. Ideally I’d like to get on a storm firing in the northern half of Kansas that will track into southern Nebraska. As you go farther south along the dryline into southern Nebraska and northern Kansas mid level winds begin to veer more, creating shear profiles more normal to the boundary and better directional shear. Also the cap strength should increase as you go south. Both of those would favor more discrete storms.
Hodographs over northern Kansas and southern Nebraks have a large area of broad curvature in the 0-3km layer and should be favorable for tornadic supercells. There are some questions regarding LCL heights. They should be low enough for a decent tornado threat, but they may be a little higher than I’d like to see them. If we can get discrete storms off the dryline in this area they could pose a good tornado threat.

Anyway, I will get into more detail in the morning after I’ve seen some other model data. Tomorrow’s setup is a very finicky one. Convective evolution and cap strength will have a big impact on the tornado threat and both of those things are very unclear right now.
I’m going to stick to the dryline in northern Kansas and southern nebraska. I think this area has the best compromise of cap strength, veering mid level winds, LCL heights and strong low level shear for tornadic supercells. The area much farthern north into south Dakota may be better for tornadoes, but I didn’t really look at it since I’m not considering going that far btw.
A lot of uncertainty still at this point with the forecast and tornado threat, so stay tuned. I should know a lot more by morning and I’ll draw my map then.
I may update again tonight as I continue to go over model data. If not it will be first thing in the morning.

I just threw that map together real quick, but it gets the point across. I will make a better map after I see the 00Z NAM tonight. Tomorrow is looking a little more interesting. With very strong wind fields, a little bit of turning in the 850-500mb layer and workable thermodynamics we may get a couple tornadic supercells over northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. I didn’t look at the area farther north because I won’t drive that far for a setup with strong linear forcing, poor directional shear and fast storm motions. I do think there will be some tornadoes farther north, but it will probably be tough chase conditions. Its not gonna be a picnic farther south either. Storms will be pretty quick down here, but not as fast as they will be farther north. With better veering in the mid levels shear profiles southern portions of the dryline will be a little more favorable for discrete supercells. Hodographs near the KS/NE border are favorable for tornadic supercells (if storms are somewhat discrete).
I still haven’t done much forecasting yet, but I will later tonight and update then.

Going forecast still seems on track. I have only glanced over the models this morning, but I’m still liking the central Kansas area for a target. SPC is getting ready to update. I want to see what they say and after I do some more forecasting I’ll get a post up.

Still a lot of uncertainty with the exact location of the triple point on Monday so don’t expect that map to be too accurate. The point of the map was more to show the three distinct environments for storms Monday.
I am not a big fan of this setup. With meridional flow and storm motions somewhat parallel to the boundary storm motions will be fast and storms will tend to become clustered/linear quickly. It’s not a good tornado setup, but with strong wind speeds and CAPE shear profiles favorable for supercells over a large area, I’m sure we’ll get a few tornadoes out of it.

(triple point circle on map) The exact location of the triple point is still a state apart between different model solutions so my map is just a guess. I didn’t look at the setup for the triple point much because I won’t drive that far for a mediocre setup for tornadoes, but there should be better directional shear near the triple point and a lot of times you’ll get tornadoes near the moisture wrap around area.

(central portions of dryline on map) The biggest severe threat will evolve with a large cluster or line of storms that should come off the dryline Monday afternoon. Unidirectional shear profiles along the majority of the dryline will keep the tornado potential somewhat low. Storm motions being somewhat parallel to the boundary will also further diminish the tornado potential with clustered convective modes. I don’t like these setups, but there is a chance you’ll get some tornadoes along the central portion of the dryline. It will probably be sloppy though and storm motions will be quite fast.

(southern portion of dryline on map) SPC didn’t drag higher probabilities as far sout as I though they would. The cap will beomce more of an issue as you drop south. At the same time midlevel winds will veer more with southward extent, creating better directional shear and storm motions slightly more normal to the boundary. This should help to keep storms a little more discrete longer farther south. There are questions regarding LCL heights over Kansas. The NAM keeps them fairly high with surface temps around 90. The GFS keeps them a little lower. Either way this is the area I’ll probably chase since its closer to home and storms may tend to be discrete longer.

All in all not a real impressive tornado setup. Its kind of depressing really because beyond this trough there is a whole lot of nothing with the models for the foreseeable future as we fall into more of a blocking ridge summer pattern. I’m sure the ridge will break down at some point. This is not the end of season death ridge, so no need to freak out, which some inevitably do this time of year when we get our first real blocking ridge.
I will take a look at the models later tonight or in the morning and update then.

I haven’t got on my forecasting yet. I’ve been dicking off on the internet all morning instead. I haven’t got many hits on my blog yet today so I wasn’t too worried about getting one up right away. I’m sure most people are out of town for the weekend anyway. I’ll take a look at it some time today and get a forecast posted. I’m not quite sure why SPC didn’t drag their severe probs farther south for Monday. Then again I haven’t looked closely at the latest model runs. The NAM shows the cap breaking all the way down through Kansas though. My huge problem with Monday still persists. Meridional mid and upper level winds. That will goof this setup in a number of ways, starting with convective evolution (likely shitty). Still with strong wind fields and decent thermodynamics this bears watching. I will get on the forecast in a bit.

I am not going to post a forecast tonight because I’m getting ready to watch a movie. I only glanced at the NAM. Monday looks about the same. Hodographs aren’t as good, but the cap breaks farther south. Can’t get caught up in those details yet though. The meridional mid and upper level flow is the biggest problem with this setup. I don’t like those kinds of setups, but I’ll probably chase Monday. Storm motions just may be a bit of a bitch and directional shear sucks.
I will update in the morning with a forecast for Sunday and Monday.

I still think Monday looks fairly good for tornadic supercells. My biggest problem by far with this setup is the meridional mid level flow. That can cause major problems. I am afraid that with a strong northerly component to storm motions, storms will ride too close to the boundary and tend to be clustered. We would be much better off with the shear profiles a little farther south where mid level winds veer more, but the cap will get stronger with southward extent. Despite the backed mid/upper winds hodographs still look fairly impressive ahead of the dryline with backed surface winds and very strong 850mb winds over southern Nebraska. So although there are some issues with this trough, it still holds good potential and will probably be a chase day.
BTW I didn’t look at the setup over the northern portion of the plains risk area. I will take a look at it in later forecasts though. I will probably update later tonight after the 00Z NAM comes out.