loadedgunchasing.com Blog

Well it looks like we might get our first real snow of the season this coming week near Wichita. I haven’t forecasted much but I’m going too take a close look tomorrow. Somebody in the central plains should get a heavy swath of snow, just a matter of where. I will update tomorrow after I forecast.

I still like my target right along the border in SW Oklahoma. I’d be setting up shop at Hollis Oklahoma or just north of that at the highway intersection I mentioned earlier. The shear profiles look good, they are getting good insolation so instability will probably be higher than forecast. The big concern I have is how convection will evolve. The HRRR keeps showing clustered crapvection instead of discrete cells and typically when the HRRR consistently shows that it’s right. The fact that there is a strong northerly component to storm motions and current radar trends lend confidence to the HRRR scenario. So convective evolution is my major concern today and it may very well mitigate the favorable conditions that will be in place for tornadic supercells. I will keep an eye on it and update in a bit.

Well unfortunately I’m not going chasing today. I really want to, but I got a lot going at work and one of my supervisors will be gone today to close on his house. I think it looks good for tornadoes as long as they get good insolation today, and it looks like they might. I will still keep an eye on it and post forecasts through the day. My starting target would be the intersection of highways 9 and 33 in SW Oklahoma.

Well it looks like it might be game on for tomorrow. I’ve been out of storm chasing mode so I haven’t done much forecasting for this setup. I really just started taking a close look at it today. That being said I’m not going to post a long forecast now. I’ll just give it a quick run down and assuming I chase I’ll get a more detailed forecast up tomorrow.
Basically it looks like a pretty solid fall setup. Good shear with hodographs being fairly impressive over SW Oklahoma by late afternoon/evening. The timing of convection and exact location of surface features is a little uncertain right now, but my plan is to head down to OKC and west from there to the Texas border on I40. If the NAM is telling the truth I will probably setup shop just south of there for a starting point.
I just looked at the models for the first time today, but there were some differences between the NAM and GFS that would impact the forecast. I’m not going to ramble about it now, but typically with the difference being shown between the two I go with the NAM. That is what I’m banking on here too. I’ll get up and check the forecast in the morning and make the final call on whether I chase or not. I am leaning towards going because I could see some good tornadoes happening tomorrow, including a strong tornado or two late in the day.
I will update again in the morning. And btw I should be streaming video tomorrow.

God damn bridge across the missouri river is out. I’m pretty sure somebody warned me about that. I would be on a tornadic storm in 15 minutes if it wasn’t but it is and I’m fucked.

Still sitting in Sabetha, KS. There are some good towers to my northeast. They look pretty significant so I’m hoping the cap will break. Think storms could fire anywhere near border area. I’m going to sit tight for now. If a persistent surface based storms develops conditions look favorable for tornadic supercells.

Sitting in Sabetha Kansas. I’m getting ready to do some forecasting, but I’m pretty content with my current position. It’s just a matter of if and where exactly storms fire. Conditions seem to already be favorable for tornadic supercells. Just need a storm. I’ll update as soon as I get done going over the forecast.

Preliminary target is Hiawatha Kansas. I think the corridor from there to Auburn Nebraska may be a good starting point. I haven’t spent much time on it though and this is a tricky one for pinning down where exactly storms will develop. I hate this late season stuff where you can’t expect storms to develop at an easily predictable point along boundaries. The HRRR has been lighting that area up pretty consistently and its in the general area where we should see the best overlap of moisture and temps (also where NAM erodes CIN). Hiawatha is a good starting point at least. I may adjust that while on the road, but if I do I’ll update.

Honestly I’m not surprised to see SPC upgrade the tornado probs for southeast Nebraska into northeast KS and NW MO. The combination of decent thermodynamics, good backing 850′s and good 500mb winds overlapping in that area could prove to be a solid setup for late season tornadoes. I am concerned about convective evolution and I am never a fan of nontypical setups, which this is. They tend to bust with a much higher frequency. Regardless, I’m not doing shit today so I’ll bite. I need to shower, pack the car, drop Duck off and shag ass out of town. I plan on heading up to Topeka and then north from there to the Nebraska border. I’m sure by that point I’ll have a target pinned down. Since I’ve done minimal forecasting for this setup I want to see SPC’s update before committing and make sure they maintain the higher probs. I only glanced at satellite earlier, but the target area was getting covered with cloud cover, which honestly may not be that bad of a thing as long as it clears off early enough. I will be chasing solo so my updates will be short because I’ll probably type them on my cell phone while driving. Once I get to my target I’ll post a longer update assuming there is time.

I just did a quick glance over the models so put much stock in this.
It looks like for the most part tornado season may be over for the central plains. This is right about the time of year you expect that to happen and the GFS and ECMWF both show us moving into more of an early summer pattern for the next week or so. It’s unlikely that a decent trough will dig south far enough (lead edge of trough, not back end) for us to get a decent tornado setp again this spring in the central plains. The high plains probably still has at least another one or two decent setups coming.
Sunday may hold some potential for a lower end tornado threat, but I really didn’t even look at it. I need to get to bed at a decent time so I’m putting it off for now.
Beyond Sunday it looks like late next work week is when we’ll get another trough coming through. It doesn’t look like anything special right now, but a lot can change between now and then.
I’ll try to take a closer look at Sunday’s setup tomorrow. Whenever I get that done I’ll get something posted.

Not a whole lot to look forward to over the next 7 days. Tonight is the first time I looked at the models for the extended forecast so I’ll wait until I see tomorrow’s runs before getting into any sort of details, but it looks like a whole lot of nothing until the second half of next week when a trough will eject into the northern plains.
I want to make a trip up north before season is over so this may be my opportunity. I really should have quit being lazy and headed up to Nebraska the other day. The problem is I can stay close to home and get paid to chase, or I can spend money and go far from home. It’s quite the swing from getting paid to driving long distance and not getting paid. It makes those decisions tough.
I’ll take a look at the models tomorrow and update at some point during the day.

I haven’t had much time for forecasting. I forgot I was supposed to post one this morning. I think SPC has a pretty good handle on it. I could see a tornado or two occuring anywhere, but typically the areas I favor with these types of strong forcing arcing band of convection days is the area north of the bulge in the dryline and then the area farther south. It seems like the area immediately south of the bulge tends to go linear quickly and I get burned every time I play it. Then again the cold front/dryline intersection may be in that area today and that would be a favored location for additional convergence and a storm to fire earlier. Typically they train right off the boundary intersection though so it’s a long shot. I’d either target north of the bulge where low level winds back more (Nebraska target) or the southern portion of the dryline where 850mb winds are strong and midlevel winds begin to veer more. The area in between typically has badly backing mid/upper level flow and too much forcing.
I am afraid storms are going to fire too early. Also LCL height may be a concern along the dryline. It’s a mediocre setup, but its the only show in town so I’ll give it a shot. I’m going to stick close to home on this one. I’ll update in a bit after I’ve had time to do some forecasting.

Tough forecast for tomorrow. With strong forcing convection could tend to get filled in quickly along portions of the cold front/dryline. Convective evolution will play a role in the tornado potential and that is always tough to forecast. I could see any place producing tomorrow. The main targets are the area north of the surface low and warm front, the cold front/dryline on the north side of the bulge, and the southern portion of the dryline. I have no idea what I’m going to target. I am going to wait until morning to figure it out.
One thing of note is the NAM is farther southwest with tonight’s run. That is the same thing it did last night and it ended up being right, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see SPC shift the risk area southwest in later outlooks.
I will update in the morning with a map.

I might have screwed up. We were in Salina this afternoon waiting to see how things unfolded. After I saw the Topeka 4pm sounding I called it a day. I thought it was just too strong for persistent day time storms. Well storms fired right as we got back to Wichita just southeast of Salina, about 20 miles from where we were waiting. Hopefully they struggle with the cap and don’t produce because I’ll be super pissed if they do. Game of Thrones was tempting me back to Wichita. It’s a new HBO series and the new episode is tonight. I forgot to set my DVR to record it. It’s not worth missing a tornado though.

I am leaning towards chasing tomorrow. It’s just a matter of whether I want to go balls out and head for northeast Nebraska/NW Iowa or do I hedge my bets and play closer to home. Not sure yet. I’m going to look over data and I’ll update later tonight with a map. In the meantime pray to the storm gods the KS storms don’t produce tonight.

I’m leaving town now heading up to Salina. I’m going to stop there, go over data and pin down my starting target. I’ll upate when I get there.

I have just started working on my forecasting but I wanted to get a rough map up, so here it is. I haven’t looked much at where I expect the cap to erode and storms to fire, but the area on the map above is the most favorable environment for tornadoes today. That doesn’t mean that is where we will get tornadoes, it just means conditions are most favorable for them in that area. That is where 850mb winds are stronger as they wrap around the surface low. This area also coincides with the stronger midlevel winds as a 500mb jet streak moves through this afternoon.
I will go over the forecast more and update several times through the day.

The chances for tornadoes will increase tomorrow as a potent trough ejects into the plains. The models have been fairly consistent showing Monday as the best tornado day as a seasonably strong trough with a favorable tilt ejects into the plains. That continues to be the case and a tornado outbreak looks likely near the surface low and just east of there along the warm front where a potent overlap of shear and thermodynamics will exist. I am still debating whether or not I am going to chase. I think I probably will because it looks like a pretty sure thing (for this time of year) for at least one or two tornadic supercells in the gray hatched area on my map. As things look now I’d target south of Sioux City about 40-50 miles.

I will continue going over model data through the day and update as I get time.

I just started to look at the NAM and it shifted everything southeast with tomorrow’s setup. If that is accurate and not a fluke then the threat area will shift southeast too so my old map would be off. I will get a new map posted in the morning.

I just got back from chasing tonight. I was on the tornado warned storm that tracked right along the OK/KS border. It never produced a tornado when I was on it, but it had a couple rotating wall clouds. There was one time when I thought it might put down a weak tornado. Didn’t happen though.

I am just now starting to look at tomorrow’s forecast. Still not sure if I’m going to chase. I really don’t want to make that drive. I will post a forecast either later tonight or in the morning.

I just got done going over today’s forecast and it isn’t looking good. There are some significant differences between the NAM and GFS with the strength of wind fields at 850 and 700mb, but both models show weak flow at 500mb. that combined with weak flow in the inflow layers and strong DCAPE should keep any tornado potential very low today. I may chase since some storms may fire close to Wichita, but I wouldn’t stay with them very long. They should tend to become multicells or outflow dominant shortly after maturing.

Tornado potential should improve for Sunday as the upper level trough begins to eject into the central plains. Very good directional shear will help to offset moderate wind speeds, with hodographs becoming quite favorable for lower end tornadic supercells by late afternoon. The area I circled in white and downstream from there (hatched white box) will have the highest probability for a tornadic supercell tomorrow. I’d setup just off the southeast side of that white circle and stay on the furthest southeast storm that develops in that area. I think you’d have a pretty good chance of seeing a tornado tomorrow if you do that.
The chances for storms will be lower southeast of there where I put a white X due to the cap becoming stronger. Still thermodynamics and shear profiles will be favorable for a solid lower end tornado threat in this area should persistent surface based storms develop. I am really hoping that can pan out because I REALLY don’t want to drive all the way to Grant, Nebraska tomorrow (which would be my rough target if I do go balls out tomorrow). Basically any storms that manage to work into the stronger backed 850mb jet will pose a tornado threat. Not a major tornado threat, but cyclic tornadic supercells producing lower end tornadoes would be possible tomorrow. Again I think the white area (and immediately south of that) has the highest probability of a tornado due to the higher probability of convective initiation, but if the cap can weaken farther southeast that area will be decent too.
I will update again later today. I haven’t looked at Monday yet but I will try to before the next update.

There are several days that show some potential between now and Monday, but nothing looks terribly impressive. I haven’t looked real close at anything yet, but I’ll go over it in the morning and post a forecast then.

Monday is looking like the best tornado day with this next trough. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this being a seasonably strong trough with a favorable tilt, so my confidence is increasing that at least the shear profiles will be decent with this setup. If we don’t have issues with the cap or high LCL heights over the warm sector we could have a pretty good setup. I really haven’t looked at much yet but I’ll start going over it tomorrow and get a forecast posted then.

It is still a long ways out, but the models have been consistent in showing a more substantial trough moving through the plains around Sunday/Monday of next week. I haven’t looked at it closely yet, but the trough is seasonably strong and it has a good tilt to it with the current model runs for a severe weather event as it moves through the plains and midwest. At least we have something to look forward to again. It seems like it’s been forever since we had a decent trough. I will take a closer look and update later tonight or tomorrow.

Just got home from work. Still a lot of uncertainty on where exactly storms will fire and how convection will evolve. I still like the NW quadrant of Missouri and still like the Chillicothe or Columbia target. Those would both be good places to wait at and see how things evolve. I’m not really sure what to expect in the way of tornadoes today. These types of setups are very finicky IMO. I have to run a quick errand and then I should be able to start looking at data again.

Very tough forecast today. It is difficult to pin down the exact location of the boundaries and any tornado threat this afternoon will be largely influenced by convective evolution, which is inherently tough to anticipate with warm fronts (plus today’s sloppy surface pattern is making it even worse).
I haven’t looked at much so take this with a huge grain of salt, but I’d be sitting in either Chillicothe Missouri playing the north central Missouri area today or I’d go with the Columbia and Jefferson City Missouri area and play the central Missouri target. At least that is the two places I’d be sitting at right now. As things evolve through the afternoon I’m sure I’d move. It’s just very tough to pin down where exactly storms will fire and how they will evolve. The best thing you can do is put yourself along the warm front in the area that you think is most supportive of tornadoes and hope convection evolves favorably for a discrete storm or two in your vicinity.
I am going to continue going over data. SPC updates shortly which I’m interested in seeing too. I will update again after a while. If I were chasing right now I’d be northeast or east of Kansas City some place with the intention of dropping back into the target areas I mentioned above as storms evolved. That could change as things evolve though because I really don’t have a good handle on this setup.

I haven’t looked closely at it yet, but after glancing it over tomorrow does have potential. The greatest threat for tornadoes will likely be near and east of the surface low along the warm front. The cap is a question mark that still needs answering. Tonight’s NAM has convection breaking out near the surface low, but in the previous runs I looked at the cap was stronger. Assuming surface based storms fire near and east of the surface low, CAPE/shear profiles should be favorable for supercells. The tornado potential is a little tricky at this point. I want to look at more data before getting into that. Again I only glanced things over, but hodographs weren’t that good for tornadic supercells except for near the stronger 850mb winds. That could be farther east of the surface low along the warm front or any place in Missouri late in the day as the LLJ strengthens and before the boundary layer decouples. I will take a closer look at it and get into that later.
There also may be some cold front storms in Kansas. I haven’t checked that out yet either but I will.

I was going to chase today and I’d still like to, but I just can’t bring myself to make a 3-4 hour drive with gas prices as high as they are. It is basically $150 chase at least with my car. I’d rather wait for something a little better. Today does look decent for a lower end tornadic supercell or two though, which is tough to pass on this close to home. If it was in the KWCH viewing area I’d go for sure, but it’s not. Because of that the amount of money I can make on a chase like this is limited because the best case scenario is I get tornado video. I can sell that to KWCH for about the price of gas. The national networks probably won’t buy it unless it’s good since today’s tornadoes (assuming there are some) probably won’t be a big deal. Anyway, I just can’t muster the will power, which pretty much seals the deal that tornadoes will occur today. That is typically how it works for me.
My concerns today are the cap and weak 850mb flow. With storm motions nearly head on to low level flow that will help to offset the weak low level wind fields and SR winds in the surface to 850mb layer aren’t bad for a lower end tornado threat. The target area is very small and the storm motions will be slow, so this is a really good day to chase. If there is going to be a tornadic supercell it should not be hard at all to get on it. I’d get right about where I put that X and any tornadic supercell should be easily within range of that before it produced any tornadoes. The HRRR has been consistent in developing a few discrete supercells up in the area I outlined on the map, so I will not be at all surprised to see one or two tornadic storms. With only modest inflow level winds I wouldn’t expect strong tornadoes, but I could see one storm producing a couple lower end tornadoes. I have a bad feeling I’m going to regret sitting this out. I really hope I’m wrong.
I will probably do a little virtual chasing this afternoon so I’ll update if I’m watching it.

I’m just now sitting down to forecast. I should get something posted by 12:30

I just started looking a little closer at tomorrow’s setup and I’m starting to think there might be some good potential there. It is very conditional because of capping issues and convective evolution, but there is decent potential. I’m really curious how SPC will handle it. Things should be a lot more clear by morning, but capping and convective evolution are two of the most difficult things to predict IMO so this will be a tough forecast.

I just got done looking over the 00Z NAM. A triple point will set up over Kansas tomorrow with a warm front running east from there. Since I’ve only seen a couple model runs I’m not going to get into the exact locations of the boundaries yet, but the triple point should be in the central Kansas vicinity. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the extent of capping tomorrow. Assuming surface based storms can develop along the warm front, then the CAPE shear combinations should be favorable for supercells and we may even get a couple tornadoes, especially where stronger 850mb winds intersect the warm front.

I will probably chase tomorrow if the cap doesn’t look like a deal breaker. I still need to see the simulated radar models and 12Z runs before drawing a map, but I’ll try to get on that first thing in the morning. Whenever I get done doing that I’ll post a map and preliminary target.

Sorry about not posting on today’s setup, but it didn’t really matter since the cap held. I was going strong after I got back in town tonight, but after I unpacked, showered and ate I hit a brick wall. Took a nap on the couch four about four hours lol. I setup the alarm on my phone for once an hour to check visible satellite and SPC. I finally got up a couple hours ago.

I just glanced at tomorrow’s setup and it’s looking like a probably chase day in Kansas. It’s nothing impressive, but its close to home I think there is a respectable chance for a couple lower end tornadoes near the triple point and along the warm front. I will take a closer look and update later tonight or in the morning.