I’m not too optimistic about today. Storms are firing near Topeka now and cu field is thickening along a boundary from east central Kansas to south central Kansas. Storms should continue to develop in both of those areas through the afternoon.
It is a mediocre severe weather setup. There is definitely a nonzero chance for tornadoes, but the way things look now I’d be suprised to see anything more than a brief spinup. I haven’t looked closely at the SR winds, but very little directional change in the 850-500mb layer rarely bodes well for tornadoes. It does happen though. With mediocre thermodynamics across the northeast portion of the state and weak deep layer shear along the southern boundary, I’d be real suprised to see it work out today. I’m going to be ready and keep an eye on things in case something discrete goes up close to home, but other than that I don’t plan on chasing.
SPC didn’t seem very excited about the tornado potential for tomorrow, but I’m still going to take a look at it today since it will be close to home tomorrow. I’ll update later on that. I’ll keep posting occcasionaly as today unfolds too.