I am pretty much baffled by SPC’s forecast today. If you get persistent storms over the northern portion of Kansas all indications are that they should thrive in that environment. Wind shear and thermodynamics are both very favorable for tornadic supercells over that area with the RUC. So far the RUC seems to be verifying, but I could be missing something. I never looked at this setup until last night. The cap is an issue, but the RUC has been showing convection bbreaking out with every run and based on satellite images it looks like there is already strong convergence north and northwest of Hays. We are almost to Hays now. Will probably meander north out of there and see what happens. I could be way off on this one, but if we do end up getting a good tornadic supercell out here SPC really botched this one IMO.