Tomorrow is looking like its probably going to be a chase day. I haven’t hardly looked at the GFS, but both models show a somewhat favorable area for tornadic storms along the frontal boundary. There is quite a bit of difference on the exact placement of the surface features and highest tornado threat, so there isn’t much point in going into that right now since I’ve only seen one model run. The best tornado threat will be some place over southern Nebraska or northern Kansas.
The cap could be an issue tomorrow. The NAM is more bullish with convection than the GFS which shows a stronger cap. The 4km WRF simulated radar didn’t show anything getting going during daylight hours. The models are all terrible with precip so I don’t think you can believe any of them. The only thing that I’m ever impressed with on precip with the models is the 4km WRF radar product. Its wrong a solid 50% of the time, but when its right it is amazingly accurate. I still don’t trust it on whether or not the cap will break. I have mixed feelings about the cap tomorrow. Last time I chased on the crest of a ridge (like tomorrow) it was a cap bust. I thought about it before we left on that chase and it ended up burning me. I’d hate to fall for that one again. At the same time though more times than not when the cap is a concern it ends up breaking. I typically don’t gamble with a cap. I’ll chase when its an issue and just hope for the best. That is probably what I’ll do tomorrow.
I want to spend some more time on the forecast before talking about tornado potential, but there will likely be an area along the frontal boundary where good shear, strong CAPE and sufficiently low LCL heights will all come together for a decent tornado threat. Deep layer shear and the cap are my biggest concerns. There are differences between the models on the strength and placement of the better mid level wind fields. Being in the better mid level flow will probably be important tomorrow.
I will update in the morning when I get up.