Well Friday doesn’t look good. A cold front will run NE to SW from central Kansas down to the southern Texas panhandle will it will intersect with a surface low Friday afternoon. There is little in the way of CAPE, but the best instability will be near the triple point. Poor moisture, weak instability and insufficient low level shear will keep any tornado threat to an absolute minimum. I would be really surprised to see a tornado on Friday.

On Saturday the tornado potential will increase. Better moisture will have made it’s way inland by this point, with upper 50 dewpoints across most of the warm sector. With temperatures in the mid 60′s LCL heights will be fairly low. Unfortunately the low temperatures will also minimize instability, but 500-750J/kg of SBCAPE ahead of the cold front in eastern Texas and western Louisiana seems reasonable. There are some serious limiting factors with this setup though. Low level winds will be veering, but this will be offset to some degree by westerly winds at 500mb and 700mb, which will create sufficient directional shear for a tornado threat. Still low level shear doesn’t look very impressive at this point. I’m not real fond of rapidly moving cold fronts serving as a focus for tornadic storms either. It doesn’t work out well a lot of times. That being said, I do think there is a decent chance of a few tornadoes over east central Texas and northwest Louisiana on Saturday, but I’m not nearly as excited about it as SPC seems to be in the latest outlook.
I haven’t looked at Saturday’s setup real closely yet so I will try to tonight and I’ll update my forecast after I do. From what I’ve looked at I do think the best area for tornadoes will be over east central Texas and the northwest portion of Louisiana where you get the best compromise of CAPE and low level shear.