I could go over exactly what the jet stream is going to do over the next week, but nobody wants to hear that (they can go watch it at RAP or COD if they want), so I’m just skipping ahead to the anticipated action ahead.

The prospects don’t look as good today as they did yesterday. I am going off of the 12Z data, which is Zulu time so 7am model runs to those of you that don’t know these things. The run the models again at 00Z, which is 7pm. That data is not out yet, but it will be soon, so I may have to turn around and correct myself again. There is simply no reliable model out there right now. They are all showing stronger mid level flow coming into the cetral plains which is the first ingredient you need for severe weather. The other thing you need is instability and we should have heat and moisture, so although we might not get any really good setups in the next couple weaks, we should get some decent storms which is better than anything we’ve had in a long time.

If you can believe the GFS, which you can’t the first day I’m really interested in is next Saturday over northwest Oklahoma. The GFS is not along in forecasting a nice little surface low along the the frontal boundary though. The ECMWF is very similiar in it’s 12Z solution, so we may be on to something. I’m not going to say much about it since it’s a week out and ridiculous to pick apart details a week out on a year that the models have performed this poorly, but if it were to verify deep layer shear and instability would be adequate for supercells and with good directional shear in a triangle near the surface low tornadic supercells would be possible.

I will post again tomorrow when I’m sure the models will have changed again. What a joke. Just one good day. That’s all I want.