We are going to do this a little backwards from how it normally would be done. We are going to check out the long term forecast before looking at the short term possibilities. I have no real reason for doing this except for I find the longer term slightly more interesting and I have a bit more to say on, while at the same time being very aware of the fact that we are talking about long range models here which are certainly not known for their accuracy.

On Wednesday of next week a high amplitude trough will be on shore of the western US with a large ridge holding firm over the plains and central United States. The question is who is going to push who around.
The trough has several jet streaks moving into it’s back side which will push the eastern side of the trough eastward as far as the central to eastern Rocky Mountains. This is where we hit the snag. There is nothing on the backside of the trough. If you look on the backside of the trough there isn’t a jet streak in sight, so basically this trough has just given it’s final shove and the jet streaks that helped move it that far east will begin to go over the tp of the central US Ridge.
Here is where the good news starts again. As these jet streaks top the ridge the shove the crest of it south, basically making it a lower amplitude ridge, in effect bring the southern branch jet stream over the plains again. This takes place on Friday if I remember right. And by Saturday one other potent jet streak in the southern plains will come in to knock the top off the central plains ridge.
This elongates the ridge into a ENE to soutwest axis. Then we have a trough over the Pacific Northwest and southwesterly flow over the pacific waiting to bring in another trough. That looks like good news to me. I am just hoping for an active period in June some time and getting the blocking patterns out of here is the first step.

Now for the short term
I’m not really excited about anything. I only looked at Kansas for this part of the forecast and I only focused on the plains for the first part of the forecast, so please no angry post from the Illinois or Indiana guys about how they have a chance of severe weather.
Monday is the only day I looked at and I seriously doubt I’l go out for that even though it will be close by. I may have to since it’s in the viewing area, but otherwise I would sit it out for sure. Weak instability and weak shear….. kind of important things for tornadic or even severe storms. Why would I go? We’ll see though. A lot can change. Before the models showed a much stronger shortwave that advected in good moisture creating strong instability and wind shear.

Let’s keep watching ahead a week though. That is our chance for a major tornado setup and that is what I am after. All I want is one major tornado outbreak. That’s it. It doesn’t seem like to much to ask for in tornado alley during the spring, but it’s a rare commodity this year.

I’ll update tomorrow.