I just got done doing some forecasting. I didn’t spend as much time on it as I should, but we got nothing but time so I’m in no big hurry lol.

On Thursday and Friday this weak a weak disturbance will initiate storms along a frontal boundary in the KS-NE border area. Right now it doesn’t look like anything that coupld produce severe weather, but even so I’ll keep any eye on it.

Beyond that I have no idea what is going to happen and anybody that says they does either has ego problems or should be making a lot more money than they currently are. I was looping the GFS 300mb charts and you can watch the high pressure over the western US that is initially flattening and shoving these mid to high amplitude troughs coming in from over the pacific up into Canada. This area of high pressure breaks downs in the day 7 period as a nice short wave in the polar jet and and strong jet streak in the southern branch push in from over the Pacific. But then you go and look at the extended range (that was only going 180 hours out) and watch the GFS then we are dealing with blocking highs for the next 16 days. There would be a few opportunities in the high plains, but they would be lacking in moisture. The GFS does have one very good looking high amplitude trough that moves in over the Rocky Mountains and just stalls out for like 3 days before it finally starts to break down and fall apart. I don’t understand that, but it is certainly the kind of trough tornado outbreaks are made out of if it could continue it’s progressive nature and take on a slight negative tilt as it entered the plains. If that managed to happen we would get to back to back tornado days, once of which would be a major outbreak.
That being said. There are a lot of what if scenarios right now and I’m just going to keep watching the models and try to establish some trends. Hopefully somebody smarter than me can shed some light on the issue because I hate the uncertainty and I really don’t like not having anything to look forward to.

I’m going to find a site where I can loop polar views of long waves and I might post again after that. I used to have one linked but I lost everything on my favorites list when my computer crashed. It just kind of does its own thing. I need a new laptop and this one will certainly be retired after this chase season.