I am going to push posting my long range forecast back until tomorrow morning. There are several more things I need to look into and I’m starting to nod off so it’s not going to happen tonight.

Basically the GEFS and GFS are sticking to their guns and developing a somewhat high amplitude trough off the northwest coast around the 23rd. Both models are consistent in slowly moving it on shore. The trough does become negatively tilted and quite strong for this time of year, but it does so over the Rocky mountaings, which isn’t going to cause any severe weather. If the actual pattern is a little more progressive than forecast we may be in good shape with a northern central plains into the high plains chase. After that it looks like we might see a series of lower amplitude waves tracking through the northern plains, which is good news if moisture can get up there, but bad news because the roads aren’t as good and it’s a long drive.

The models are terribly inaccurate this far out so anything could happen. I will post a forecast tomorow morning.