Finally the GFS updated and although it shows a very good setup for tornadic storms, it is very different from the NAM which furthers the confusion on what exactly is going to happen. Now that it has updated I can start working on my forecasting though.

Below is a quick post I just made on Stormtrack…

Just when it looked like all hope was gone, the GFS turns around and comes back through for us.

Nice triple point along the OK-KS border with CAPE AOA 3000J/kg all the way from east of the triple point down the dryline. It has convection breaking out at the triple point/front just east of it and more convection further south. A rapidly deepening surface low backs winds across the warm sector to SE and puts them straight out of the east along the boundary. Even 850 winds are out of the south-southeast just ahead of the triple point. Although 850mb winds are only progged to be in the 30kt range along the border area (stronger down south) that is plenty good enough. Directional shear in the 0-6km layer is great. Deep layer shear could be better (it’s around 45kts), but moderate to high instability will more than make up for that.

It presents such and easy chase with an easy target selection. Slow moving supercells (may be a little wet) with a few tornadoes would be great. I’m a directional shear junkie so even though the hodograph for Alval and Medicine Lodge aren’t long, I really like the curvature.

Now I just have to spend the rest of my day pulling my hair out in an effort to figure out which mode is telling the truth. One target is a couple hours away and the other one is about six hours away.