Well the GFS and the NAM have once again stuck to their guns. I think they might have even seperated the triple point even more than in the last couple runs. I’m not getting into a long detailed forecast or explaining my thinking too much on this because I am dead tired and I have to get up to setup equipment in the morning, but this should be sufficient.

The NAM sets the triple point up along I40 just west of the Texas-Oklahoma border with the highest CAPE at 00Z either side of the border. The GFS is farther north near the Kansas border and puts the CAPE bullseye between Woodward and Cherokee Oklahoma.

I am siding with the GFS, once again and in my opinion it looks much better then the NAM. I really like the setup the GFS is showing. The GFS has precip breaking out near Woodward (just downstream of the CAPE bullseye) well before 00Z (probably 22Z, but the models are god awful with precip). Deep layer shear isn’t great at 45kts, but when combined with CAPE AOA 3000 this will be an extremely favorable environment for supercells. There is excellent directional shear with the hodograph almost making a half circle on the Woodward forecast sounding. 0-1km SRH is 225 and 0-3 is 350, both of which are past the threshold for a decent tornado threat (0-1km is especially good). And finally 1km SR winds are forecast at 26kts. That’s good, but not great.

There are a couple things I don’t like. One is that 10km SR winds are only 23kts and 5km SR winds are only 10kts. That’s not very good for those of you that don’t follow this kind of stuff, but it is far from being a show stopper. I also wish mid level flow was a little stronger, but as many people have noted in stormtrack forecast posts there have been plenty of great tornadic storms with weak mid level flow.

With dewpoints in the mid 60′s LCL heights will get plenty low by 00Z. Storm speeds should be perfect at around 25kts towards the northeast. That’s easy to keep up with and fast enough to move out into the better moisture.

I like this setup a lot if it verifies. The big question mark is the NAM that is still hanging out there and it just isn’t quite as good of a setup as the GFS is and hasn’t been for days now IMO.
If the GFS is correct I think a tornadic supercell over northwest Oklahoma is highly likely and with lowering LCL heights and increasing low level flow late in the evening strong tornadoes will be possible. My target right now is Woodward (I think the best environment for tornadoes will be just northeast of there).

Below is my forecast map. BTW I will also be posting maps with position updates through the day tomorrow while we are out chasing so check back if you’re interested.