I am pretty much in agreement with SPC and favor the northern end of the hatched area on their latest day2 outlook. Kind of like the Woodward, Buffalo and Beaver area. I think the triple point will end up some place close to there. Given the good directional shear, moderate instability, good moisture and fairly stout 850mb winds (assuming the NAM doesn’t have it’s way) I think there would be a good tornado threat with storms coming off the triple point and riding the boundary. The strength of the low level shear tomorrow is going to play a major part in the strength of the tornadoes. I think you would probably even get a tornado with the NAM (which has weaker winds in the surface to 850mb layer), but I don’t think they would be that great.

I’m still not done with my forecasting believe it or not. I got my ass pounded at work all day because I work with morons so I never had much time to get on the computer. I’m home now though so I’m going to take a quick shower, load some of my gear in the car and then sit down on the couch to finish my forecasting and make a map to go with it.

Since we know the triple point is probably going to be the best place tomorrow what I’ll do is continously update my blog with comments and maps throughout the day. By early afternoon you should be able to pin down the tornado threat area pretty easily. Like I said before though, my guess is the Woodward, Buffalo area. That could change after I finish my forecasting and look at current data though.