I napped later than I was supposed to and just got up a little while ago. Between work and storm chasing stuff it’s killing me. It’s tough to get myself motivated to forecast when I know I’m going to turn around do it tomorrow morning again anyway.
I am going to keep this very short, because i didn’t look at much and I need to go to bed. I’m going to try to get out of work at noon tomorrow so I can start working on getting my car setup for chasing Saturday and possibly Sunday. Until just now I hadn’t looked at any model runs beyond Saturday. Sunday looks good in western Oklahoma with the GFS. The NAM is quite a bit different though so who knows what’s going to happen. At least starting tomorrow we can start to figure it out for ourselves instead of depending on the models so much.

For tomorrow the GFS scooted the triple point south about 20 miles. I think it’s kind of in the Ashland Kansas area. I would target 20 miles east of the triple point and wait on any storm going up at the triple point, along the dryline and then possibly along the warm front in that area. I’ve never been a fan of warm front storms though. It seems like they always outrun the good environment before they have a chance to mature and storm motions will be perpendicular enough to the boundary on Saturday for that to happen. Soo, triple point and dryline south of there is my target. If the gfs stays where it is that would be right along the Kansas Oklahoma border. The NAM is holding steady too, which is quite annoying. If anything the GFS came in closer towards the NAM by shrinking down the instability fields and showing a more localized even like the NAM has had previously. That sucks, but it only takes one good storm.

I will work harder on this in the morning.