I didn’t do much forecasting tonight, so this is pretty weak. Tomorrow morning’s forecast will be a decent one.

With the 00Z runs the picture becomes even clearer and at least a localized tornado outbreak is looking increasingly likely. Right now it is a good bet there will be tornadic storms over the area I’ll highlight on the map below, but the number and strength of any tornadic storms come down to smaller scale details that are not yet clear. I certainly think strong tornadoes are possible, I’m just not very confident on where exactly I would place the threat level for this setup. The slightly weaker looking setup the NAM shows bothers me a little bit, but I’m going to ignore it. It is still a good setup for tornadoes, so don’t get me wrong. I’m just trying to classify whether this is a good or great setup.

On surface features the 00Z NAM has moved closer to the GFS, while the GFS dropped slightly south. I am siding with the GFS again, placing the triple point some where in the Dodge City area or just south of there.
There are still a lot of things about the 00Z NAM that I don’t like or agree with. I don’t want to start pouring over all those details tonight, but I will get more into it tomorrow with the 12Z runs because I think the discrepenies between models will close up even more by then. If I had to guess the NAM will probably move the dryline a little east and push the triple point north this side of the Kansas border and the GFS will drop a hair south again. If that is indeed what happens it should be pretty easy to start zeroing in on targets.

My last forecast pretty much covers my forecast and the last map I posted is still pretty much valid. I tweaked it and made a new one though.
I like the GFS better than the NAM. Surface winds are backed more, it doesn’t widen the moisture gradient south of the triple point for no reason. 850mb winds are stronger. Basically it shows a slightly higher end tornado threat. I need to get to bed, but I will post a detailed forecast tomorrow morning. Here is my updated map. I just threw it together quickly with no color, but it will work. I’m real anxious to see how SPC handles this in the morning. Next forecast will be in the morning.