The GFS has again held steady and my confidence continues to grow in a tornado outbreak. I have done some forecasting off of 00Z data this morning, but I want to wait for the 12Z runs before I right a detailed forecast. For numerous runs now I’ve felt the best target will near the dryline from just south of the warm front down to around the Oklahoma border (assuming the GFS surface pattern holds true). I think this area is colocated with the best environment for tornadic supercells and discrete storms. Ahead of the dryline in this area 850mb winds will be backed at 40kts. This combined with respectable directional shear and moderate CAPE will pose a strong tornado threat with any discrete storms.

Below is a rough map that I just made and it isn’t exactly dead on. I would scoot my striped area where I think the highest tornado potential is a little farther north, but I’m not messing with it. I’m sure I will shift things one way or another before Saturday anyway.
As of now I would target Dodge City and adjust North or South from there as needed (probably a little south to the border area if the cap isn’t a big concern). I will post my next forecast after I look at the 12Z data.

EDIT – the triple point will be a target to keep a close eye on, especially if he NAM solution verifies where the moisture gradient along the dryline is spread. I doubt that happens though because with the surface low deepening through the day it should help to sharpen and bulge the dryline immediately south of the warm front and surface low.