I just glanced at the ECMWF and couldn’t tell much since there is so little available date that they provide to the public, but it basically looked about a day slower in ejecting the short wave into the plains.
We are still way far out and a lot can change, but there are several things to be optimistic about. Even though the models have been ovedoing dewpoints by a couple degrees all year(especially the NAM), the GFS has had td’s in he low 60′s for numerous runs now so expect we will realize 60 degree td’s. With good insolation we can expect moderate instability. Regardless of which model you go with deep layer shear will be suficient for supercells.
So far the GFS composite indices like EHI and Signficant Tornado have been peaking ahead of the dryline in the KS-OK border area, which is about where I’d target, I’d probably go a little south of there if the GFS verified.
Tomorrow the NAM picks up on this and it’s real forecast time. I am dozing off constatntly as I’m writing this so I’m sure there are several grammer errors. I gotta hit the sak and I’ll forecast in the morning. I’m going to post a map along wih my forecast tomorrow too. I finally downloaded blank forecast maps and put them on a flash drive so i can make forecast maps where ever I am.