Finally we are starting to see some consistency out of the models. I have flipped though quite a few things quickly, but a lot of stuff still hasn’t updated from the 12Z run so I’ll have to post my forecast in a little bit. My confidence is greatly increased that we will see a tornado outbreak on Saturday though.

The surface low has been over central to NW Kansas in the last few runs with the dryline running through western Oklahoma and a warm front running east/northeast from the surface low. Ahead of the dryline dewpoints AOA 60 degrees combined with good insolation should yeild CAPE >2000J/kg. I haven’t looked at much aside from cruising through RAP and looking at charts for each pressure level, but I’m guesstimating the deep layer shear will be in the 55kt area ahead of the dryline in central and southern Kansas. With a fairly stout cap and the shear vector being normal to the boundary discrete supercells should be the favored mode of convection along the dryline.
Another huge plus is that 850mb winds are backed and out of the south at 40kts along the dryline. Strong low level winds is a huge part of good tornado days. If that can verify and we get backed 850mb winds at 40kts strong tornadoes would be possible given the other paramaters that are being shown by the GFS. I am anxious to see the hodograph (I guess I can just plot my own), but I’m sure it will look quite good for tornadic storms.
LCL heights will be managable with about a 20 degree spread during peak heating and then cooling down in the afternoon when storms should fire.

The triple point and warm front might have some potential too, especially farther east down the warm front over north central Kansas and east of there. I haven’t had time to really look at that area yet though.

Basically everything looks good. The surface low deepens through the day which backs surface winds. The moisture gradient should be fairly tight and storm motions should be quick enough to move storms well out into the warm sector before dark if they fire at a reasonable time. It is perfect chase country. It’s on a Saturday. What could possibly go wrong? The cap lol. No precip on the models for several runs, but they are always off on precip. I think storms will break the cap Saturday and I’m beginning to believe that there will be several tornadic supercells along the dryline from central Kansas down to southern Oklahoma and possibly some more tornadic storms farther north near the triple point and warm front.
The dryline is my target on this one though. I absolutely love dryline chases. They are my favorite by far. As of now my target would be a little ways south of the KS-OK border 20 miles ahead of the dryline.

Now watch, since I’m saying there will be a tornado outbreak the damn GFS will do a 180 and show a crap setup for Saturday now lol. Nah, I think we got a good chase day coming. I’ll update later with more details.