Well as usual the models are jumping around making it very difficult to look ahead 7 days or so to see what will happen. The GFS is still updating on COD, which I prefer to use, so I’ll take a little closer look at the synoptic scale details and try to figure out why there are differences and what’s causing it (which I absolutely am not quailifed to do, but it makes me sound smart lol). No, what I’ll really do is take a closer look at the models and see if I can get some additional guidance from other long range forecasts where the people writing them know a lot more than me when it comes to synoptic scale meteorology.

Right now the European (which traditionally is more accurate IMO) is to some degree sticking to its same upper air patter with sligh changes and slowing down a little bit. It maintains a deep trough that slowly makes its way across the Rockies.

The GFS on the other hand has changed completely and now has the trough becoming very positively tilted of the NW US coast, stalling out and then sending a serious of weak disturbances through the high plains. Then it starts to move on shore (can’t remember all the days so this is just over the next 7-10 days) and deepens over the Rockies and slowly begins to ease into the central plains.

Below is a picture of the 500mb flow for Saturday from each model.

GFS

ECMWF
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It looks like we won't be getting much action this weekend and it will be pushed back. Who knows how long, but there will be a trough hanging around some place out West. Right now the European solution would be better for us, but there is hope with the GFS too. Here is a picture of the 300mb chart for Tuesday of next week from the GFS.

Who knows what is going to happen. I have a lot of stuff to do today, but it is mostly work I am doing from my apartment and some of it’s on my computer too, so I’ll keep doing a little forecasting here and there. I’ll probably post a few short updates throughout the day.