There continues to be uncertainty on the timing of our next chase day, but after seeing the 12Z GFS it looks like southwest flow aloft should begin returning to the plains as early as Saturday with the stronger 500mb winds entering the plains the firt part of the week. I want to check the European again, which I haven’t so I will probably update this in a bit.

I don’t want to get into the details tonight because I have a lot to do, but we should probably see our best moisture of the year in Kansas with this trough. I think dewpoints over 60 is plausible which also means we’ll get some good instability, which we haven’t had to work with yet this year either.

A lot can change between now and then, but for I don’t know how many days now I’ve been watching this and stickng to the same story that there is a trough coming over the Rockies this weekend (looking a little slower now possibly), so at least we have a high degree of certainty that something will happen. It may be a great tornado day or may be a bust. Who knows. I am not as excited about the upper air patter as I was several days ago, but it doesn’t take a perfect upper air pattern to produce a good tornado day, so no worries there.
I may update with a few details tonight and then I may post a forecast tomorrow morning because I’ll be at work by 5am, which means I’ll probably take some computer time and drink coffee. If I feel like going over the models then I’ll post a forecast. If not it will come later in the day.