I was to busy again today to work on my forecasting. I apologize for that to the two or three people that actually read this lol. I did just look over the GFS on RAP and COD for about 20 minutes (getting ready to go to bed). I still don’t like the setup very much for Saturday. I got 00Z data on RAP because it updates faster and 12Z data on COD because it takes an eternity to update. COD is so much better though for looking at details. On the 12Z the moist tounge makes a miracle lunge forward in the 18Z-00Z time frame. With surface winds under 20kts and 850mb winds veering at 30kts, that is physically impossible IMO.

It is still early in the season and I think we are going to be dealing with the same problems you usually do this time of year. I don’t think there is going to be adequate instability or moisture for a good severe weather threat.
As I mentioned in my previous forecast this wave train pattern we’re in doesn’t allow for much recovery over the gulf or moisture advection northward. We are in a progressive pattern (wave after wave) with mid amplitude waves and short wave lengths (distance between short waves). This acts to shove the better moisture into the far southern gulf with the pass of the first wave and there simply isn’t enough time for good moisture advection to draw good moisture back northward before the arrival of the next shortwave. Decent moisture will probably make it to southern Texas with this system on Saturday, but that is too far away from the upper level support. Given the projected instability and shear I think you’ll get a lower end severe threat, but the tornado potential just isn’t there.The kinematics look really good with this system on if you are just looking for severe weather, but the lack of instability and moisture take away from that. Regardless I do think you will get an overlay of adequate moisture and upper level support in the area SPC has highlighted over the eastern half of Oklahoma and northeast Texas. This may wrap into far southern Kansas too.
To be honest I haven’t spent nearly enough time looking at this. I did read over SPC”s outlook and they mentioned…

“PROBABILITY OF ROBUST WARM SECTOR RETURN FLOW AND FAVORABLE OVERLYING WINDS WITH SUCH A PATTERN BY
DAY-6/SATURDAY/4TH-5TH…INDICATES POTENTIAL SVR OUTBREAK OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEKEND.”

I just don’t see a “robust” warm sector developing except for over the southern portions of Texas which is too far south of the good kinematics and steep lapse rates. This was Edwards forecast though and I think he is one of the better forecasters at SPC. He certainly knows a lot more than I do. And like I said I haven’t spent much time on this. Even if we do get decent moisture I’ll agree there will be a severe threat given good deep layer shear, but the tornado threat won’t be good regardless given the veering 850mb flow. Some times people will point out that this yeilds major directional shear in the lowest 1km, but I can’t remember a single good tornado day with veering 850mb winds.

Well that’s it for now. Time for bed. I’ll do some more forecasting tomorrow. Don’t know how much. Just depends on how busy I am, but I’ll at least get some degree of a forecast up and it will be earlier in the day. I want to look a little further ahead and see if there is anything on the horizon to look forward too. I need a good tornado day.