I spent some more time on the GFS, but did go check out the European as promised. I’ve been very busy these last couple weeks and will continue to be really busy for probably another week or two. Until I finish getting all my equipment ordered, hooked up and running I’m probably not going to have time to post quality in-depth forecasts. If there is a good chase day coming up I will certainly find a way to do some proper forecasting, but for these long range forecasts where nothing major is showing up well on the radar I’ll probably just do a brief overview of the forecast.

Well the fundamental problem we have over the next ten days is that one trough after another dives into the southern plains and is quickly followed 2-3 days later by another trough. The pattern is too progressive. You need a break in between troughs for the dewpoints to recover and for moisture to be advected back northward so that these troughs have some good juice to tap in to. Keep in mind we are looking out 240 hours, so the models are FAR from accurate at these ranges. The good news is that there is an active jet stream. The bad news is that it’s a little too active and fast moving.

There are two days that stick out right now as potential severe weather days for the plains. The first is this Saturday which SPC mentioned in their 4-8 day outlook. They have the same concerns that I do in that moisture recovery will be very difficult with this trough riding right on the heels of the previous one. I shouldn’t be discussing mesoscale details this far out, but the models (and these types of situations in the past) favor veering 850mb winds, which will kill a tornado threat quicker than anything else in my opinion. That being said, my guess is that the eastern and southeastern portions of Texas will see some severe weather on Saturday, but the tornado threat won’t be there.

Attention then turns to next Wednesday when another fast moving waver dives into the central plains. This one my have a slightly better chance of drawing in decent moisture, especially if it can slow down and take on a negative tilt. If this can happen then this will be something to watch, but there is no way of knowing what will happen this far out.

On the backside of Wednesday’s trough the jet stream angles northwestward. I am horrible and know very little about synoptic scale meteorology, but I would think that there is a fair chance that after next Wednesday’s trough passes we may return to a more zonal type flow for a period of time. I actually think this is a good thing. We won’t get any weather during the zonal flow pattern, but that is what allows good moisture to build over the gulf and typically when the zonal flow breaks you get several deep slower moving troughs coming through which are usually associated with major tornado outbreaks. The timing on this would be in the later part of April. This is some serious wishcasting so don’t take it seriously at all. It is just my best guess at what to look forward to. A lot can change before now and then though. I will probably post again tomorrow with updates on the forecast and I have a few other announcements to make as well in regards to this upcoming chasing season. thanks for stopping by