I just spent about twenty minutes going over the GFS so I don’t know much, but the April 4th time fram (next saturday) looks like our next possible chase day. Obviously we are a long ways off, but the GFS looks like it might be out to lunch on this one. 850 winds are veering badly, 700mb are backing and then 500mb are veering nicely. Not sure what that is all about.

It shows dewpoints in the low 60′s stacking up against the dryline over Texas and possibly far southern Oklahoma, but moisture concern will certainly be a concern with the previous trough shoving quality moisture southward and keeping northerly winds over the gulf until shortly before the arrival of the short wave on Saturday. ON the positive side the gfs did want to show decent CAPE over the eastern portion of Texas.

After that a potent LITTLE short wave ejects out into Kansas with a negative tilt, but moisture will almost certainly be a problem if the GFS is righ and we have this rapid waive train with one after another. The problem is that troughs rotate counter clockwise so on the backside of them (where the cold front would be) you get northerly winds. This usually shoves the quality moisture way down to the southern gulf of Mexico (depending on where the trough is). When you have one wave quickly followed by another there isn’t much time for air mass recovery (pulling moisture back up from the gulf) and you end up with sub par moisture, which is obviously critical to a tornado threat.

A lot can happen between now and then and I didn’t forecast much so we at least got something to look forward to with next Saturday’s setup over central into eastern Texas. I will post some more tomorrow after I see the morning’s GFS and the European.