The low level jet has been pumping moisture northward overnight and the tounge of the better moisture (>55 td) is now well into southern Oklahoma. Upper 50 degree dewpoints are right behind this in the moisture tounge and it is approaching the Red River as of 12Z. Last night’s GFS has dewpoints reaching 58 degrees along the KS-OK border. I think we will be close to hitting that. I’m thinking 57-58 is very reasonable. Morning soundings will be revealing about the depth of the moisture being advected into Texas and Oklahoma. I don’t think we’ll have as much of a problem with dewpoints mixing down as we did yesterday, but we’ll just have to wait and see because as I mentioned before I’m not really knowledgable about vertical mixing and it’s effect on dewpoints.

My target is still the same general area. I am a little worried about the cap now, so I am thinking I’ll stay towards the northern end of my target which would be the border area just south of Medicine Lodge. Once we get closer to initiation time the models and satellite data should reveal the best areas of convergence along the dryline so I can move into place then.

Other than that everything looks pretty much the same. Moisture return is the story with this setup and I will be keeping a very close eye on moisture advection throughout the morning. I think SPC needs to scoot their tornado probability map a little back to the west. I know they have it that far east because they are expecting the best tornado threat in the couple hours after 00Z when hodographs become very impressive, but regardless I still think it’s a bit too far east. On that note some night chasing will be in order. If I’m on a good storm I will chase it for a couple hours after dark since the tornado threat will increase in that time frame.

I will post regular updates and forecasts through the morning.