I’ve spent a little while going over models and current conditions this morning and I am a little more optimistic about the chances of a few tornadoes tomorrow.

Morning soundings show that moisture is adequately deep across a large portion of eastern and southern texas. This moist tounge is about half way across Texas now (going off >55 td). Trajectories will remain very favorable for further moisture advection and my best guess is that we will get dewpoints in the 58 degree range near the KS-OK border. If dewpoints are at or above 58 degrees it will be adequate for a respectable tornado threat with any discrete, persistent supercell.

There isn’t much to say that I haven’t gone over already. The keys to this setup is getting the quality moisture up to the KS-OK border, getting some clearing over the warm sector ahead of the dryline to allow for destabilization and getting a persistent supercell off the dryline near the KS-OK border or a little south of the border. The sweet spot for tornadoes is northeast of the Cherokee-Medicine Lodge area, so any storms developing in that area should track through the best environment and would have a good chance of going tornadic IMO. The location of the dryline is still uncertain, so these targets I’ve mentioned could shift east or west tomorrow based on where the dryline sets up.

My target as of now would be the KS-OK border straight south of Medicine Lodge. I am hoping for a storm to fire south of there and track northeast. On fast storm motion days like tomorrow you always want to cheat downstream of your actual target area. Because of that I will probably set up shop in Medicine Lodge. Remember it is a hell of a lot easier to catch a storm that is moving at you than one that is moving away from you, so make sure you cheat north of your actual target area.

I will post updates through the day on how moisture advection is going and on anything else that I may pick up on when I work on my forecasting. Below is a map showing the area that I think has the highest tornado probability tomorrow. Remember this could shift east or west based on the location of the dryline.