After glancing over the NAM, 00Z soundings and surface obs I am thinking I might be shifting my target slightly to the south about 30 miles or so. Some place between Fairview Oklahoma and the KS border is where I want to be. I will definitely stay a good 20 miles north of where I expect a storm to fire since storm motions are fairly quick. Ahead of the dryline in this area hodographs have good curvature and length, 1km SR winds are around 40kt (which is excellent) and 1km SRH is well above the 100m2s2 threshold for a decent tornado threat. Those are all good indicators of tornado potential, but the questionable moisture and weak instability complicate the situation. It is important that storms fire early enough for them to move out over the warm sector where they can realize the better moisture and impressive low level shear. I think we will get a couple storms coming off the dryline in the Medicine Lodge to Fairview area and if they are persistent and manage to stay discrete they will likely be tornadic. I would tend to agree with SPC that a strong tornado or two are possible IF they can get out into the warm sector where LCL’s are lower and 0-1km SRH is higher during day light hours or shortly after dark.

I will post another forecast in the morning and then I’ll post occasional updates through the day. I will closely monitor satellite and surface obs and fine tune my target. As soon as I get it figured out I will certainly post it. Like I said I have internet in the car now so I can post regular updates. You can also track me on spotter network if you even care lol. Good luck to everybody chasing tomorrow.