Maybe I won’t be doing much forecasting. I thought the GFS would have updated by now, but it hasn’t so I’ll just go over my initial feelings after glancing over the 12 run this morning (which I didn’t spend much time on).

There are a couple spots where tornado potential should be enhanced slightly. The first area is near and just northeast of the surface low, which should be located over northwestern Kansas near the Nebraska border.
The other area is farther south along the dryline in the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Picking a place to target around a dryline in a setup like this can be tricky. You have to compromise on several things and try to pinpoint where the tornado potential will be maximized. I would target Woodward going off the 12Z gfs data and stay on a storm tracking up towards the Kansas border. IMO this area is far enough south that moisture should be slightly better and temps should be slightly warmer (regardless of what the gfs is showing) and hence CAPE should be a little higher. It is also the point where I think storms will start to become more isolated and where mid level flow begins to veer a little more improving the directional shear in the 0-6km layer. There is also extremely strong 850mb winds in this area which is a huge positive IMO. There are some concerns with this area too. I don’t like how 500mb winds start to back from 18Z to 00Z, which should begin to create more of an S shaped hodograph. Even though the directional shear is better here it still leaves a lot to be desired.

edit – I just caught a quick glimpse of the new 00Z run and it makes more sense than the 12Z so I’ll write a new forecast in the morning.

Overall I think there is a fair tornado threat. I am definitely going to be chasing and I fairly certain I’ll be targeting the dryline in the area where mid level flow begins to veer a little more than points farther north. I will be keeping a close eye on temperatures and moisture advection and that could influence where I set up along the dryline. It looks like a pretty good chase for this time of the year. I feel somewhat optimistic about my chances of getting a tornado, but these early season chases have a much higher bust probability so you never know.

I will post a couple new forecasts tomorrow.