I haven’t spent much time forecasting, but I figured I would give a brief update since Sunday and Monday are beginning to look like chase days. This is the traditional spring severe weather scenario where you get two days of potential storms. On day one there is very good directional shear, but moisture may be lacking a little and the cap is an issue because the upper level support is still too far west. That is the case this Sunday except moisture doesn’t seem like an issue since it doesn’t improve much by Monday according to the gfs. The moisture could certainly be better, but dewpoints in the upper 50′s is good enough for tornadic storms. Normally on day two of these setups there is much better instability, you have great deep layer shear, the cap isn’t an issue at all, but the directional shear has kind of gone to crap. That is exactly what Monday is looking like. Deep layer shear and CAPE combinations will support supercells, but I’m never very optimistic about tornadoes when there isn’t much in the way of directional shear. There is maybe 45 degrees of turning in the 0-6km range. That sucks. Tornadoes do still happen (kind of frequently) on day two of these kinds of setups, but convection is wide spread so there are a lot of storms to choose from. The day 1 situations normally only produce a few isolated storms if the cap is broken. I will look a little closer at the forecast and post again, but I will definitely have to get out for this one if it verifies. I don’t think it looks great or anything, but there is a solid 5% tornado probability with what the gfs is showing now.