I haven’t spent any time forecasting, but I did take a quick glance at the models for next Tuesday/Wednesday’s trough. The big problem I see is it’s positively tilted. When this happens your low level winds almost always veer and you have big problems with moisture advection (for several reasons). I won’t be chasing unless something dramatically changes. I’m sure we’ll get severe weather out of it, but I’m after tornadoes and tornadoes don’t seem like a possibility at this point.
I didn’t look at the short wave that comes through this weekend, but it looked half way decent, but short on moisture. I will take a closer look tomorrow but it doesn’t look like tornado material either. I seriously just glanced at the GFS for two minutes though so I need to spend a little time on it and post again tomorrow.